The 25 July 2022 Scenarios in Tunisia: Uncertainty after the Referendum

INA-source
The twenty-fifth of July 2022 will mark yet another important date in Tunisia’s history. Several months ago, President Kais Saied announced the holding of a referendum on the new draft constitution that was shared publicly only on 30 June 2022, less than one month before the vote. This drastic change of course throws the whole country into uncertainty and deepens divisions within society between the president’s supporters, who see the referendum as ushering a new era, his critics, who announce the end of the democratic transition launched in 2011, and the rest of the population, who have grown tired of political tensions and have borne the brunt of the economic crisis.
 
The uncertainty of the Tunisian political life opens the door to numerous scenarios, whose aftermath is unfortunately detrimental to the country and heralds future divisions and even deeper crises. This paper seeks to examine these different scenarios, analyze their consequences, study their stakeholders, and determine their likelihood.
Source-Arab Reform